Lysara Specialization Strategy — Findings & Recommendation

1 Decision Framing

The Opportunity Cube, resolved

The market sells big-box NNN leases or unpowered yards. Nobody sells flexible + located + powered. That mismatch is the whole thesis. Three axes resolve to a single cell.

Axis A — Demand

Who is underserved

Commercial fleets needing flexible-tenor, well-located, powered space.

Parcel / 3PL / grocery / trades / leasing. The status-quo mismatch is acute — the product they need does not exist at scale.

Axis B — Supply

What to own

Infill IOS / urban logistics yards with securable grid capacity.

Structurally supply-constrained (planning + grid queue); fragmented ownership = acquirable; cheap as "low-grade industrial," valuable as "depot."

Axis C — Right-to-win

Why us, durably

Grid-secured Buy Box + depot telemetry + procurement density.

The compounding mechanism is connection inventory + DNO relationships — it improves with every site and is not buyable off-the-shelf.

This is the European analog to Outpost's US transport-infrastructure thesis — but narrower (UK-led, not "UK + France") and re-centred on power as the binding constraint, not location alone.

So-what — this is a re-anchoring, not a continuation. Lysara's accidental Amazon-anchored, two-country book is to be pruned to fund this wedge.

2 Demand · Axis A

Electrifying into a wall

Demand for fleet electrification is forced by mandate, but the real estate that can serve it — located and powered — does not exist at scale.

+36.2%

UK battery-electric van registrations in 2025 — a record 30,169 units.

Measured SMMT FY2025 LCV Release

9.5%

EV market share achieved vs the 16% mandated for 2025 — a structural shortfall.

Measured SMMT FY2025

15yrs

Maximum wait some grid-connection projects now face — depot EV charging explicitly cited.

Measured DESNZ / NESO; Ofgem

The status-quo mismatch

The SMMT is explicit: the gap underlines the need for faster depot grid connections, streamlined planning approvals, and public charging suited to larger vans. The bottleneck is not appetite — it is van-suitable charging and connection waiting times.

Measured · high confidence

The forcing function: grid, not land

Since Nov 2024 the GB demand-connections queue grew by 80 GW transmission + 5 GW distribution, reaching 125 GW by June 2025 — a 460% rise in six months.

Whoever holds powered sites holds a scarce, appreciating asset.

MECE segmentation — by supply-chain function × procurement behaviour

Segment	Tenor preference	Power need	Underserved?
Final-mile parcel / 3PL (vans)	Short / flexible, flexes with peaks	High & rising	Yes — acute
Middle-mile cross-dock / transload	Medium, scalable	Medium	Partly (weaker in EU)
First-mile port / drayage	Medium	Low–medium	Partly
Trades / construction / rental fleets	Flexible	Low (today)	Yes (storage), not power
Line-haul HGV / overnight parking	Transient / nightly	Emerging	Yes (parking) but low WTP
Bus & coach (municipal)	Long, contracted	High	Served — Zenobē owns it

SAM — top-down

A long-run trajectory toward 30–40% BEV-van penetration implies ~1.5–2M vans needing depot charging over a decade → at 30–50 vans/site, 30,000–60,000 powered depot sites of latent demand nationally.

Triangulated · med ✏ site, not bay

SOM — Lysara realisable

~£150–250M equity into 25–50 sites = a £400–800M GAV powered-depot platform over 4–5 years.

Assumed · med

Willingness to pay

Zenobē shows fleets will pay (pence-per-mile / monthly fee) to outsource grid risk — lowering lifecycle cost by up to 30%. A landlord controlling the connection sits upstream of that WTP.

Measured

⚠

Disconfirming test (Axis A): Watch DNO median connection times for <1MW demand loads. If the queue clears faster than expected for sub-1MW depot applications, the power-scarcity premium compresses. The 2026 mandate is 24% vs an SMMT forecast of ~11–14% — the persistent under-shoot actually strengthens the thesis as pressure accumulates.

3 Supply · Axis B

The arbitrage: priced as dirt, valuable as a depot

Infill IOS is a structurally young, supply-starved sub-sector — and the only archetype where the pricing signal still lags the use-value.

Asset taxonomy & mispricing

Archetype	Pricing signal	Barrier to new supply	Mispricing?
Infill IOS / urban yards	Priced as low-grade industrial	High (planning + grid)	Yes — the arbitrage
Big-box logistics	Prime yield ~5.00–5.25%	Medium	No — fully priced
Self-storage	Prime ~5.0–5.5% ✏	Low	No — institutionalised
General / consumer parking	Commodity	Low	No
Truck parking	Fragmented, low rents	Medium	Niche, low WTP

+47%

UK IOS rent growth in 2023 vs 2022.

Measured Savills IOS in Europe, Sep 2023

28,040

IOS sites across England & Wales — up 45% in a decade; rateable value +102%.

Measured VOA data via Knight Frank 2025

+7.8%

Prime IOS rent growth to Q2 2025 across 41 UK markets → £2.69 psf nationally.

Measured Knight Frank IOS 2025

"Urban logistics hubs often face constraints on both yard space and grid capacity, pushing occupiers to seek nearby IOS land as spillover charging zones."

— Knight Frank, Industrial Outdoor Storage 2025

Barrier 1 — Planning

IOS faces nimbyism and zoning that suppress new pipeline. Knight Frank notes "limited supply of prime sites in many locations."

Barrier 2 — Grid

The 125 GW queue means new competing powered depots cannot be conjured quickly. A site with power secured today enjoys a 2–5 year head-start.

✏

Lease-structure correction (UK data): UK IOS lease lengths range 1–25 years. H1 2025 transactions span 1-yr flexible (Neasden), 3-yr (Amazon, Wembley), 10-yr (South Mimms) and 15-yr FRI (Frog Island; Northfleet). Ownership remains extremely fragmented. The prior memo's "5–7 year" reference cited US data and has been replaced. Measured

4 Intersection · Unit Economics

Geography splits the economics

Five cells screened against Lysara's return anchors. One is the wedge. The 3-acre infill yard works in three corridors — but only the power premium carries the Midlands over the line.

Opportunity-cell screen

A = Demand · B = Supply · C = Right-to-win · ●●● strong fit, ● weak fit
Cell	Verdict	A	B	C	Fundable 12–36m?
1. Powered infill IOS / EV depots — UK metros	Wedge	●●●	●●●	●●●	Yes
2. Flexible middle-mile yards (Outpost transplant)	Roadmap	●●●	●●●	●●●	Yes
3. HGV secure / overnight parking	Defer	●●●	●●●	●●●	Partly
4. Self-storage	Stop	●●●	●●●	●●●	Yes
5. Consumer / general parking	Stop	●●●	●●●	●●●	Yes

Cell 1 — bottom-up unit economics by corridor

Illustrative 3-acre (130,680 sq ft) infill yard. Toggle a corridor to see its cost stack; the chart compares blended stabilised yield-on-cost against the ~7% anchor.

Blended stabilised yield-on-cost

Shaded = base yard YoC · solid = with power/charging uplift (+150–300bps) · dashed line = 7% anchor

Base yard YoC

Power/charging uplift

London / Inner SE — cost basis

Base yard rent ~£712K/yr

⚠

Key insight: the Outer SE corridor (M25 belt, Kent, Hertfordshire) is the sweet spot — land costs are supportable but rents stay London-adjacent. Pure Inner London needs very high power revenue or below-comp entry to clear 7% YoC. Midlands reaches target only with the power premium — strip the charging story and base YoC can fall below 5%.

~14–16%

Levered IRR (illustrative)

Assumed requires full financing model, lease-up, exit yield & downside sensitivities before IC

~1.5–1.8x

MOIC, 5-year (illustrative)

Assumed same caveat

✏

Internal return anchors. Lysara platform targets (~7% YoC, ~15% levered IRR, ~1.5–1.9x MOIC) are internal GreenPoint benchmarks. CRT Lesquin (7.3% NIY / 15.3% IRR / 1.43x) and Belfast Titanic Quarter (6.75% NIY / 15.0% IRR / 1.92x) are internal deal-level metrics. All return comparables must be cited to internal IC models — with underwriting date, LTV, debt cost, exit cap rate and hold period — before this memo is distributed externally or to LPs.

5 Right-to-Win · Axis C

The decisive axis: a compounding connection moat

Each secured connection teaches the next — which DNO regions have headroom, which substations to target, how to phase export-limited connections to operate early. After 10 sites, Lysara holds a proprietary map no late-entrant capital pool possesses.

SITE 1→N

Secure a grid connection

LEARNING

Map DNO headroom & substation targets

DENSITY

Procurement leverage on hardware & EPC

MOAT

Proprietary connection inventory & portfolio-premium exit

Codifiable Buy Box

3–10 acre infill yard within target metro / corridor ≤ £X/acre securable ≥1MW connection within 24 months B8 / sui-generis planning achievable fleet covenant or flexible multi-tenant demand

Repeatable via Lysara's existing VEFA / forward-funding muscle. Minimum-connection threshold is a hard gate: no power = no deal.

Incumbent-reaction test

SEGRO · Prologis · Tritax · Mileway

Low reaction risk

Tritax bought >£1.035bn of logistics assets from Blackstone — they fish in a larger pond. Sub-£10M powered yards sit below their deal-size radar. Measured

Zenobē · bp pulse · GRIDSERVE

Partnership seam

Zenobē supports 3,400+ fleet EVs across 120 depots — but on customers' sites, owning batteries and software, not the real estate. A seam, not head-on competition. Measured

NW1 · Realterm · Marchmont

Watch

The closest true IOS aggregators — building plain IOS platforms without the power overlay. Watch their M&A for signals of a pivot to powered-depot strategy.

⚠

Disconfirming test (Axis C): if a charging operator (Zenobē, bp) begins buying land at scale to vertically integrate, Lysara's seam closes. To date they finance and operate — they do not aggregate real estate.

6 Geography

Resolved to corridor

Concentrate where the forcing function is enforced and the right-to-win density compounds. Defer where it isn't.

Include · UK

Two UK corridors

London & the South-East last-mile

Highest fleet density, tightest land, ULEZ live and enforced. IOS prime rents £5.45 psf and rising.

Midlands "Golden Triangle" / motorway junctions

National distribution heartland. One of the top-performing IOS regions (+9.7% YoY rent growth).

UK-wide context — HGV parking

21,234 lorries park nightly vs 16,761 secure spaces — a ~4,473 deficit. £69.5M DfT/National Highways investment announced Nov 2024. ✏ 2022 vintage

Defer

France & rest-of-Europe

France — forcing function weakened

Greater Paris extended the Crit'Air 3 exemption with no penalties to Dec 2026; only ~25 urban areas have implemented ZFEs, often with exemptions and uneven enforcement.

A function that isn't enforced isn't a function

Hold existing French assets (Lesquin, etc.) as cash-yielding; do not allocate the powered-depot tranche to France until enforcement credibly returns.

Germany / rest-of-Europe

No right-to-win density; would dilute the compounding moat.

7 Synthesis

The prescription

Own the grid-connected dirt; let charging operators run the electrons. Prioritise the Outer SE corridor and Midlands, where land costs and rents are best matched.

The ONE primary wedge — UK powered infill IOS / flexible EV depots.

Sequenced compounding roadmap

Now → 18 months

Prove the playbook

Acquire 6–10 infill yards with securable connections.
Prove the conversion playbook on 2–3 anchor fleet tenants.

18 → 36 months

Codify & scale

Codify the Buy Box; scale to 25+ sites.
Layer flexible multi-tenant + transient demand onto base fleet covenants.
Build the proprietary DNO connection map.

36 months +

Adjacent expansion

Expand into flexible middle-mile yards (Cell 2, the Outpost transplant).
Explore battery-storage co-location on under-utilised yard area.
Re-enter France only if ZFE enforcement returns.

Stop-doing list

✕

Exit self-storage

Institutionalised, no compounding right-to-win. Prime yields ~5.0–5.5%, fully priced and consolidating (incl. proposed Big Yellow acquisition). Sell into current private-capital appetite.

✕

Exit general / consumer parking

Commodity, no moat.

‖

Deprioritise standalone HGV overnight parking

Real shortage (4,473-space deficit) but low WTP and weak compounding — pursue only where it co-locates with a powered depot.

‖

Pause French new-money deployment

Hold existing assets; halt new tranche until ZFE enforcement returns.

!

Treat Amazon concentration as risk, not diversity

Diversify the tenant base deliberately as new depots lease up.

90-day actions

Stand up a grid/connections capability — hire a DNO-connections lead. The single most important hire.

Run a connection-headroom screen across target metros (DNO heat-mapping) before any acquisitions.

Codify and board-approve the powered-depot Buy Box, including a minimum-connection threshold gate (no power = no deal).

Open partnership dialogue with one charging operator (Zenobē / bp pulse archetype) to validate the landlord-operator seam.

Mandate sale processes for self-storage + consumer parking.

Commission EPC and DNO quotes for a pilot site to ground-truth grid & charging cost assumptions before IC underwriting.

KPIs — the compounding proof

MW of grid capacity secured Sites with connection in <24m Blended YoC vs 7% anchor Charging-revenue uplift realised vs underwritten Tenant diversification (% non-Amazon) Cost-per-MW trend, sites 1→10

What would change the answer

↘ Grid queue clears fast for <1MW demand loads

→ power-scarcity premium compresses → thesis weakens.

↘ Charging operators integrate backward into land (esp. Zenobē, bp, NW1)

→ Lysara's seam closes → reconsider.

↘ ZEV van mandate materially watered down

→ forcing function softens.

↗ French ZFE enforcement credibly returns

→ reopens France as a roadmap geography.

Concentrate Lysara's next tranche in UK powered infill IOS / flexible EV depots, prioritising the Outer SE corridor and Midlands where land costs and rents are best matched; win on grid-connection control; partner with charging operators; defer France until ZFE enforcement returns; fund the focus by exiting self-storage and consumer parking.

One-line recommendation

8 Evidence

Sources — cited & verified

Every external figure is sourced. Modelled components are labelled. Internal comparables are flagged and must be cited to deal-level IC models before external distribution.

Confidence key Measured Triangulated Assumed ✏ Revised in audit

Full source table — 18 claims, dual-model adversarial audit

Claim	Source	Status
UK BEV-van registrations 2025 (+36.2%, 30,169 units, 9.5% vs 16% mandate)	SMMT Full-Year 2025 LCV Release	✅ Verified
2026 ZEV van mandate 24%; SMMT forecast 11–14%	DfT ZEV Mandate; SMMT commentary	✅ Verified
GB demand-connections queue 125 GW (Jun 2025); 80 GW transmission + 5 GW distribution since Nov 2024	Ofgem Demand Connections Update; Slaughter & May	✅ Verified
Grid delays up to 15 years; demand queue +460% in 6 months to Jun 2025	DESNZ / NESO; Ofgem	✅ Verified
UK 4.88M LGVs end-2025; 113K zero-emission LGVs (~2.3%)	DfT Vehicle Licensing Statistics 2025	✅ Verified
UK IOS rents +47% (2022–23)	Savills IOS in Europe, Sep 2023	✅ Verified
UK IOS prime rents £5.45 psf (London/SE), £2.75 psf (Midlands), Q2 2025	Knight Frank IOS 2025	✅ Verified
UK IOS transactions up 66% in 2025; >£250M transacted	Knight Frank / Green Street News 2025	✅ Verified
IOS lease lengths 1–25 years (UK); H1 2025 transaction data	Knight Frank IOS 2025	✅ Verified
IOS land comps (Northfleet, Hackbridge, Manchester Ship Canal)	Knight Frank IOS 2025	✅ Verified
Big-box logistics prime yields ~5.00–5.25% (15-yr income)	Knight Frank Prime Yield Guide Dec 2025	✅ Verified
IOS assets suitable for EV / battery storage	Savills Sep 2023; Knight Frank IOS 2025	✅ Verified
Zenobē: 3,400+ fleet EVs; 120 depots; 30% lifecycle cost cut; pence-per-mile	Zenobē press / electrive 2026	✅ Verified
Tritax / Blackstone >£1.035bn logistics portfolio	Tritax RNS / Investegate	✅ Verified
National Lorry Parking: 21,234 nightly vs 16,761 secure	DfT National Survey of Lorry Parking 2022	✅ ✏ 2022 vintage
French ZFE: Paris Crit'Air 3 exemption to Dec 2026; ~25 areas	Sortiraparis; Connexion France; Le Monde; Service-Public	✅ Verified
Self-storage prime yields ~5.0–5.5%; institutional recovery 2025–26	Savills Self Storage Q4 2025; C&W UK 2025	⚠ Range — confirm NIY
CRT Lesquin return stack (7.3% NIY / 15.3% IRR / 1.43x)	Internal GreenPoint underwriting	⚠ Internal — cite IC model
Belfast Titanic Quarter (6.75% NIY / 15.0% IRR / 1.92x); £26.05M acquisition publicly reported	Internal GreenPoint; Irish News 2023	⚠ Internal — cite IC model
Lysara platform anchors (~7% YoC / ~15% IRR / ~1.5–1.9x)	Internal GreenPoint platform targets	⚠ Internal — confirm mandate